Our NBA Player Projections Are Ready For 201819

Beno Udrih-0.6-1.5-2.2435-0.10.1 Montrezl Harrell+0.3+0.0+0.314090.86.0 Donald Sloan-0.7-1.4-2.1352-0.10.4 Jameer Nelson-1.3-2.1-3.4701-0.70.1 Larry Nance Jr.-0.7+2.4+1.617242.312.2 Bam Adebayo-1.2+1.5+0.317980.915.2 Sources: ESPN.com, Basketball-Reference.com Mike Muscala-0.8+0.6-0.212800.22.4 SF-1.4-0.2-1.6 Vince Edwards-1.5-1.2-2.7287-0.21.2 C-1.7+1.3-0.4 Dante Exum-0.1-0.6-0.710570.77.2 Shabazz Muhammad-0.9-2.5-3.5727-0.70.4 Marvin Bagley III-0.7-0.8-1.51693-0.715.2 Gorgui Dieng-1.7+1.4-0.314990.32.4 Miles Plumlee-3.6+0.8-2.8700-0.80.1 Justin Patton-1.9+0.3-1.6343-0.21.4 Jordan Clarkson+0.2-2.1-2.01694-0.22.2 Marcus Morris-0.6-0.4-1.116280.11.8 Robin Lopez-2.8+0.8-2.11472-1.30.2 Jimmy Butler+3.3+1.4+4.723108.338.3 Tim Hardaway Jr.+1.2-1.1+0.220572.39.9 Spencer Dinwiddie+1.7-0.7+1.020223.017.1 Ray Spalding-2.1+0.8-1.32610.02.7 Isaiah Whitehead-1.4-0.7-2.2899-0.22.6 Troy Brown-1.5-0.9-2.5936-0.312.9 Joakim Noah-2.6+1.8-0.9348-0.10.2 LeBron James+5.4+0.8+6.2276411.541.0 Kawhi Leonard+2.6+1.9+4.616705.622.3 Chris Bosh-1.2+0.9-0.35710.10.9 James Jones-1.7-1.1-2.8391-0.30.1 Markieff Morris-1.4+0.6-0.717310.42.4 Gary Neal-2.3-1.8-4.1273-0.40.0 Matt Barnes-1.5-0.5-2.0750-0.20.3 Wesley Johnson-2.5+1.7-0.910850.51.5 Marvin Williams+0.0+0.4+0.417601.74.5 Amir Johnson-1.2+2.5+1.212301.43.6 Anthony Tolliver+0.2-0.7-0.512540.41.3 Mario Chalmers-1.1-0.1-1.39720.20.9 Yogi Ferrell+0.2-0.7-0.618731.38.0 Robert Covington-0.2+3.0+2.822745.223.5 Ricky Rubio+1.3+0.9+2.223105.021.1 Kemba Walker+4.1-1.5+2.626256.326.0 Andre Iguodala-0.6+1.1+0.514581.73.5 Brice Johnson+0.2+0.8+1.0840.10.8 Boris Diaw-2.6-0.4-3.0426-0.40.0 Goran Dragic+1.2-1.4-0.320001.64.7 Bradley Beal+2.8-1.2+1.627055.327.4 DeMarcus Cousins+2.4+2.2+4.521006.026.5 Russell Westbrook+6.3+1.0+7.3248112.452.7 Kyle Anderson-0.7+3.0+2.319313.822.2 John Wall+2.4-0.2+2.222524.920.0 Enes Kanter+0.6-0.2+0.318410.84.8 Timofey Mozgov-3.7+0.8-2.8512-0.70.0 Kelly Olynyk+0.8+1.3+2.117972.813.0 T.J. McConnell-1.3-0.1-1.316020.33.6 Chimezie Metu-2.8+0.3-2.5296-0.31.3 Shabazz Napier+0.2-0.6-0.513191.04.6 Lucas Nogueira-1.7+3.6+1.910691.47.3 Terry Rozier+1.0-0.4+0.719292.515.9 Reggie Jackson+0.7-2.1-1.414370.32.0 Kenrich Williams-0.8+0.0-0.91620.01.1 Kostas Antetokounmpo-3.8+0.0-3.8172-0.21.1 Bojan Bogdanovic-0.4-1.7-2.21770-0.41.3 LaMarcus Aldridge+0.5+1.1+1.622963.07.6 Carmelo Anthony-0.2-1.3-1.51824-0.11.1 David Nwaba-1.4-0.6-2.01261-0.12.3 Joe Young-1.0-1.9-2.9584-0.40.8 Andzejs Pasecniks-0.3+0.5+0.21980.12.9 Tristan Thompson-1.3+0.1-1.31271-0.41.1 Bonzie Colson-1.3+0.1-1.11850.01.6 James Johnson-0.6+1.4+0.817402.16.1 Rashad Vaughn-1.2-1.0-2.1659-0.12.0 Nemanja Bjelica-0.7+0.7+0.113081.13.1 Skal Labissiere-1.7+0.1-1.61373-0.43.2 Kevin Love+1.6+0.8+2.418873.310.7 Hassan Whiteside-2.2+2.9+0.816751.46.0 Alize Johnson-1.0-1.2-2.2254-0.21.1 Langston Galloway-0.1-1.0-1.111580.52.9 Malcolm Delaney-1.8-1.2-2.9928-0.60.4 Fred VanVleet+1.5-0.2+1.316572.716.7 Landry Shamet-0.9-2.0-3.0501-0.32.8 Damion Lee-1.1-0.3-1.48830.32.6 Kobe Bryant-1.4-1.6-3.0380-0.20.1 Joel Embiid+0.8+3.3+4.119444.828.9 Isaiah Taylor-1.0-1.4-2.41000-0.42.0 Marcus Smart+0.2+0.8+1.020933.319.7 MiKyle McIntosh-2.2-1.3-3.4105-0.10.2 Chris Paul+5.1+0.9+6.021209.132.4 Jared Sullinger-1.2+0.8-0.55940.21.9 D.J. Augustin+0.3-2.1-1.81255-0.10.9 Tayshaun Prince-2.9-0.6-3.5374-0.40.1 Harry Giles-1.0+0.1-0.92700.03.5 Jerome Robinson-1.2-1.8-2.9886-0.64.3 Ian Clark-1.0-2.1-3.21059-0.70.6 How good are replacement-level NBA players?Based on performance of players signed to minimum or two-way contracts, 2014-15 through 2017-18 Ian Mahinmi-2.7+2.1-0.6886-0.10.5 Solomon Hill-1.4+0.5-0.910110.42.4 Clint Capela-0.5+2.4+1.920672.714.1 Jason Terry-2.8-0.7-3.4437-0.40.0 Grayson Allen-0.8-1.6-2.5568-0.22.9 Rodney Stuckey-1.7-1.2-2.9415-0.20.2 Trevor Ariza+0.0+0.7+0.721342.76.4 Jrue Holiday+1.4+0.6+1.925975.420.5 Tyrone Wallace-1.5-0.4-1.91268-0.13.1 CJ McCollum+2.1-1.8+0.325762.912.5 Willie Cauley-Stein-1.5+1.6+0.219080.66.2 Eric Bledsoe+2.1-0.5+1.722184.115.9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope+1.1-0.4+0.623893.416.4 Steven Adams+0.1+1.7+1.823943.015.0 Toney Douglas-0.8-0.7-1.54310.00.5 Serge Ibaka-1.1+0.7-0.318660.63.0 Jaylen Brown+0.4+0.2+0.622192.622.8 Joe Ingles+0.9+0.9+1.721243.712.2 Guerschon Yabusele-0.7+0.3-0.46570.33.5 Jayson Tatum+1.2+1.7+2.927296.551.9 Noah Vonleh-2.3+0.7-1.61223-0.32.8 J.J. Barea+0.9-2.3-1.512060.21.1 Steve Blake-1.3-1.5-2.8407-0.20.2 Mason Plumlee-0.8+1.8+1.016101.55.6 Aaron Gordon+1.0+0.3+1.323013.322.5 Myles Turner-0.9+2.2+1.322382.519.5 Iman Shumpert-1.3-0.2-1.59950.21.6 Paul Zipser-3.1-0.5-3.6798-0.80.7 Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk-2.0-1.6-3.6318-0.31.7 Dewayne Dedmon-1.9+2.3+0.415050.73.3 Joe Harris+0.1-1.6-1.515250.43.5 Gary Trent Jr.-2.2-1.8-4.0474-0.53.7 Luke Kornet-1.2+0.6-0.78830.23.9 Thaddeus Young-1.1+1.5+0.421542.05.5 Brook Lopez-0.4+0.8+0.417280.72.7 Dejounte Murray-0.8+1.9+1.218553.026.6 Joe Johnson-2.1-1.2-3.4821-0.70.2 David Lee-1.2+1.2+0.15710.30.7 Patrick McCaw-1.9-1.1-3.01131-0.72.2 Kendrick Perkins-3.2+0.5-2.7183-0.20.0 Anthony Morrow-1.5-1.8-3.3311-0.20.1 DeMarre Carroll-0.3+0.5+0.317731.74.5 Zach Collins-2.4+0.5-1.91473-1.24.8 Nicolas Batum+0.5-0.2+0.220602.36.5 Brandan Wright-1.6+1.1-0.65340.10.7 Elfrid Payton+0.9-0.8+0.220672.113.3 Dennis Smith Jr.+0.1-1.5-1.422690.414.2 John Henson-2.1+2.1+0.115850.73.8 George Hill+0.8-0.7+0.116201.74.3 Brandon McCoy-3.3-0.5-3.8156-0.30.4 Moritz Wagner-2.0-0.4-2.5487-0.61.7 Dwayne Bacon-2.6-0.4-3.0910-0.61.9 John Collins-0.5+1.2+0.721961.923.3 Travis Wear-1.6+0.1-1.54100.01.0 Mitchell Robinson-2.4+0.1-2.4337-0.41.7 Maurice Harkless-0.6+0.7+0.116001.47.9 Gerald Green-0.9-1.2-2.1806-0.20.4 Kris Humphries-2.6+0.0-2.5299-0.20.1 Al Horford+0.5+1.9+2.421463.510.3 Ish Smith-0.2-0.8-1.017100.62.3 Marquese Chriss-1.4+0.7-0.818380.412.1 Darren Collison+1.4-1.5-0.117991.64.7 Devonte’ Graham-0.4-1.6-2.0413-0.12.0 Markelle Fultz-1.3-0.5-1.99900.013.7 Alan Williams-1.8+1.2-0.65880.01.4 Chris McCullough-1.2+0.0-1.24060.01.9 Tyler Lydon-0.6+0.3-0.42720.22.9 Jabari Parker+0.4-1.0-0.615410.67.2 Derrick Jones Jr.-1.1+0.0-1.17890.12.9 Tony Carr-1.5-2.0-3.5341-0.31.8 Michael Porter Jr.-1.9-0.2-2.1887-0.47.8 Elie Okobo-0.9-1.5-2.4252-0.13.2 Nicolas Brussino-2.3-1.1-3.4285-0.21.1 Thon Maker-1.5+0.5-1.01390-0.35.2 Greg Monroe-0.3+0.9+0.614781.14.0 Davis Bertans+0.3+0.4+0.712771.58.2 Chandler Parsons-1.1-0.7-1.8879-0.10.6 Alex Len-1.7+1.4-0.215520.23.6 Isaac Haas-3.4-0.4-3.870-0.10.0 Shaquille Harrison-0.4+0.1-0.38810.75.0 Tyler Johnson+0.2-0.5-0.319611.77.9 JaVale McGee-1.7+1.1-0.6700-0.10.5 Paul George+2.1+0.6+2.726406.225.1 Justin Anderson-0.9-0.9-1.79240.02.4 Josh Magette-0.9-1.5-2.4379-0.20.8 Robert Williams-1.7+1.5-0.35380.06.3 Roy Hibbert-3.2+1.7-1.6445-0.30.1 Malik Monk-0.4-2.9-3.41313-1.12.9 Shelvin Mack-0.4-1.2-1.612130.11.6 Mohamed Bamba-1.8+2.3+0.612520.717.8 Sergio Rodriguez-0.8-1.8-2.6583-0.30.2 Devon Hall-1.2-1.6-2.8217-0.10.8 Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot-1.1-0.9-2.01144-0.23.6 Darius Miller+0.6-1.6-1.113350.42.7 Damian Lillard+5.4-1.5+3.925918.137.4 Denzel Valentine-0.3-0.4-0.618011.28.8 Karl-Anthony Towns+4.0+0.8+4.826347.649.4 Jarrett Jack-1.2-1.2-2.4940-0.40.4 Nerlens Noel-2.1+3.1+1.012581.17.6 Jeff Teague+1.3-0.9+0.422072.56.9 Torrey Craig-1.6-0.9-2.6723-0.30.7 Dorian Finney-Smith-2.0+0.0-2.0980-0.41.3 Andrew White III-2.7-1.3-4.0420-0.50.6 Jerian Grant+0.5-1.0-0.515771.16.9 Marcus Georges-Hunt-1.2-1.2-2.4379-0.11.3 Frank Ntilikina-1.8-0.3-2.11839-0.411.0 C.J. Williams-1.8-0.5-2.3830-0.20.9 Mike James-0.1-1.4-1.59100.11.5 Kris Dunn-0.6+0.4-0.217781.511.7 Josh McRoberts-2.0+0.0-2.0295-0.10.2 Michael Carter-Williams-1.5+0.9-0.510880.73.9 Overall-1.2-0.3-1.5 Melvin Frazier-1.5-0.8-2.3375-0.12.5 Derrick Favors-0.9+1.6+0.718671.46.4 Ersan Ilyasova-0.4+0.2-0.215760.82.5 Gary Clark-1.0+0.6-0.41780.11.7 2018-19 ProjectionLong-TERM Zaza Pachulia-1.5+2.0+0.69510.51.3 Tony Snell-0.4-1.2-1.617680.12.8 DeAndre’ Bembry-2.2+0.1-2.1762-0.31.6 Tyler Dorsey-0.4-2.4-2.81213-0.62.2 Anfernee Simons-1.7-1.4-3.0698-0.48.0 Devin Harris+0.2-0.9-0.89660.51.3 Taj Gibson-1.3+0.6-0.718560.31.6 Seth Curry+0.5-1.1-0.611870.83.4 Brandon Knight-0.4-2.2-2.7757-0.40.7 Tyson Chandler-2.2+1.9-0.39280.00.4 Stephen Curry+6.8-0.2+6.620889.642.8 Darrun Hilliard-1.8-0.9-2.7378-0.21.1 Ante Zizic-1.2+0.4-0.85650.02.8 Jordan Bell+0.0+2.8+2.813102.516.4 Andre Roberson-1.5+2.4+0.916632.410.8 DJ Hogg-2.3-0.7-3.1144-0.10.5 Jevon Carter-0.1-0.5-0.65500.36.2 Hollis Thompson-1.2-1.1-2.3641-0.30.6 Zach LaVine+0.5-1.9-1.415620.46.1 Pascal Siakam-0.8+1.2+0.516401.49.6 Tyler Cavanaugh-0.6-0.5-1.18800.02.0 Kobi Simmons-2.1-2.1-4.2987-1.40.6 Deandre Ayton-0.5-0.2-0.71742-0.316.9 Nene-1.8+2.3+0.57670.51.1 Tony Allen-2.7+0.5-2.2513-0.10.3 Tony Parker-1.6-2.0-3.6724-0.80.0 Metta World Peace-2.3-0.3-2.6456-0.30.1 Mike Scott-1.1-1.1-2.1931-0.50.4 Tyler Zeller-2.3+0.6-1.7937-0.70.4 Brandon Ingram-0.4-0.4-0.823280.817.1 Malik Beasley-0.8-1.2-2.0750-0.12.8 Lou Williams+2.9-3.1-0.220611.95.2 Terrence Ross-0.6-0.3-0.813030.73.2 Jarred Vanderbilt-1.0+0.3-0.74140.213.1 Sam Dekker-1.0-0.3-1.310910.13.2 Jerami Grant-1.2-0.1-1.215520.13.6 Kevon Looney-1.1+1.7+0.711741.18.6 Bismack Biyombo-3.2+1.0-2.21302-1.30.6 Willie Reed-1.7+0.7-1.07020.00.9 PJ Tucker-1.1+0.8-0.317051.12.9 Kevin Knox-2.1-1.7-3.81039-1.44.8 Jaylen Barford-1.7-1.8-3.5133-0.10.4 Joffrey Lauvergne-1.8-0.3-2.1771-0.50.6 Donte DiVincenzo-0.8-1.6-2.3701-0.24.9 Ty Lawson-0.6-1.6-2.1795-0.20.3 Omer Asik-3.5+1.0-2.5386-0.40.0 Rawle Alkins-2.2-1.5-3.8170-0.21.0 SG-1.1-0.8-1.9 2018-19 CARMELO projections, in one chart Glenn Robinson III-1.1-0.4-1.59140.22.6 Quincy Acy-1.4-0.4-1.81069-0.31.0 Aaron Brooks-1.7-2.0-3.8309-0.40.1 Frank Kaminsky+0.4-0.5-0.117870.75.7 Dirk Nowitzki-1.6+0.5-1.11134-0.20.4 JR Smith-0.7-1.4-2.11342-0.20.7 Amar’e Stoudemire-2.1+1.0-1.13120.00.2 Sean Kilpatrick-1.0-2.1-3.2763-0.50.4 Khem Birch-1.4+0.9-0.58890.11.9 E’Twaun Moore-0.3-1.3-1.618260.22.0 Andrew Harrison-0.5-0.6-1.115950.56.8 Juancho Hernangomez-0.5-0.7-1.18810.03.3 Rudy Gobert-0.7+4.7+4.121225.323.9 Anthony Brown-1.5-1.4-2.9440-0.31.4 Omri Casspi-1.4+0.3-1.28370.20.9 Isaiah Thomas+2.4-3.6-1.215150.42.1 Marcus Thornton-1.4-1.7-3.1401-0.30.2 Corey Brewer-2.4+0.5-1.9898-0.10.5 Bogdan Bogdanovic+0.4-1.6-1.219890.75.5 Rajon Rondo-1.0-0.4-1.413360.21.5 Dakota Mathias-1.3-1.5-2.8155-0.10.6 Dwight Howard-1.7+2.2+0.520721.03.0 Paul Millsap-0.5+1.9+1.316892.35.5 Justin Jackson-2.0-1.0-3.0256-0.23.5 Derrick White-0.5-0.2-0.71660.10.4 Issuf Sanon-1.2-1.3-2.5153-0.13.6 Anthony Davis+1.7+3.2+4.925738.242.4 Trevor Booker-1.6+0.7-0.911460.11.0 Jarell Martin-2.5+0.1-2.41274-0.91.2 Wayne Selden-0.8-1.6-2.4915-0.21.9 Jerryd Bayless-1.2-1.7-2.9798-0.50.3 Brandon Rush-2.2-1.0-3.3428-0.30.1 Richaun Holmes-0.8+0.8+0.011890.54.4 Richard Jefferson-2.2-1.5-3.6426-0.50.0 Jordan McRae-1.4-1.1-2.4325-0.20.4 Festus Ezeli-1.9+1.2-0.63520.00.7 Myke Henry-1.7+0.4-1.37550.02.4 Cedi Osman-0.7-0.7-1.39710.23.8 Dario Saric+0.7-0.3+0.422512.213.6 Chris Andersen-3.3+1.1-2.2312-0.30.0 Ekpe Udoh-1.6+3.7+2.15530.82.2 Lauri Markkanen+0.1-0.4-0.322691.017.4 Jamil Wilson-1.1-0.2-1.36030.01.4 Justise Winslow-1.3+1.1-0.118321.412.4 Jawun Evans-1.6-0.7-2.31115-0.43.5 Will Barton+1.0-1.0+0.021902.29.0 Aron Baynes-3.3+1.9-1.4972-0.30.4 Zhaire Smith-1.2-0.4-1.69200.015.3 Doug McDermott-0.6-2.0-2.61377-0.80.9 DeAndre Liggins-2.6+0.2-2.4680-0.20.5 Ben McLemore-1.6-1.4-3.01037-0.61.0 Boban Marjanovic-1.6+1.4-0.24490.00.8 Tyreke Evans+1.7-0.1+1.517173.110.4 The overall effect of these changes is, first, to boost the value of guards and wings relative to big men, and second, to increase the value of star players relative to average ones. (If you can sign a guy who’s only slightly below average for the minimum salary, you shouldn’t pay that much of a premium to grab a merely average player instead.) We think this brings CARMELO a little closer to how NBA teams actually value players.3This higher replacement level also implies that there are a fair number of sub-replacement-level players who get regular playing time in the league. We think this makes sense too; a lot of these players are in their first or second NBA seasons, and the NBA is a tough league for rookies — but getting them regular playing time is important to their long-term development. Also, let’s be honest: a handful of NBA teams each season are tanking, and may deliberately employ counterproductive players.One other small modification is that we now issue projections for American-born players who had little or no NCAA playing time, such as Anfernee Simons (who decided to forgo his college eligibility) or Michael Porter Jr. (who played only three games at Missouri because of injury).4The adjusted college statistics provided to us by ESPN’s Stats & Information Group for our rookie projections are calculated for the top 100 draft prospects only, so we also use this method for rookies who fell outside the top 100 but who nonetheless require a projection. These projections use a limited set of information — namely the player’s position, height, weight, age, draft position, and their career number of NCAA minutes played. (Our regular projections for rookies, by contrast, use NCAA stats that have been adjusted for pace and opponent quality, as provided to us by ESPN’s Stats & Information Group). Last year, we’d introduced similar projections for players who played in Europe (or another international league) rather than the NCAA; this is simply an extension of that system for players who neither played in Europe nor the NCAA.Finally, as a small token of appreciation our for people who made it through this entire story on methodology, here are our new CARMELO projections in capsule form, with a summary of 2018-19 as well as long-term projections for the more than 600 players in our system. Have fun browsing through the CARMELOs and enjoying the drama of the NBA offseason. Jaren Jackson Jr.-2.5+1.7-0.91456-0.117.9 Kyle Collinsworth-1.6+0.1-1.47330.11.7 Thomas Welsh-2.3+0.2-2.1219-0.20.7 Norman Powell-1.2-1.0-2.21034-0.21.9 Matthew Dellavedova-1.0-1.8-2.81056-0.60.7 Khris Middleton+1.3-0.5+0.823773.313.6 Shane Larkin-0.6-0.9-1.58980.12.3 Cole Aldrich-2.1+2.2+0.14880.11.0 Paul Pierce-3.4-0.3-3.8305-0.40.0 Jon Leuer-1.8+0.4-1.5892-0.20.7 Mike Dunleavy-1.5-1.4-2.9425-0.20.1 Thomas Robinson-1.8+0.3-1.5560-0.11.1 Josh Hart+0.5-0.7-0.317671.611.9 Danny Green-1.4+1.4+0.015621.54.4 Isaac Bonga-1.7-0.7-2.3166-0.14.7 Kevin Seraphin-2.6+0.2-2.3424-0.50.1 Briante Weber-1.0-0.7-1.75480.02.0 Randy Foye-2.4-1.1-3.5426-0.40.1 De’Anthony Melton-1.8+0.3-1.54510.19.4 Troy Williams-1.6+0.1-1.58010.02.7 Jusuf Nurkic-1.9+3.3+1.419192.013.5 Henry Ellenson-1.5-0.1-1.5707-0.22.7 Rodney McGruder-0.6-1.0-1.59580.22.0 Pau Gasol-0.9+2.3+1.415321.83.0 Cody Zeller-0.7+2.1+1.515111.99.5 Jose Calderon-1.2-1.1-2.3653-0.20.3 TJ Warren-0.1-1.4-1.519360.14.3 Tarik Black-2.6+1.1-1.6820-0.31.0 Tony Bradley-0.8-1.0-1.8233-0.21.0 Nikola Jokic+4.0+2.1+6.221818.349.7 Chris Johnson-1.8+0.9-0.9335-0.10.6 Channing Frye-0.3+0.1-0.26900.30.6 Marc Gasol-0.7+1.8+1.220751.84.5 Kirk Hinrich-1.7-1.7-3.4316-0.30.2 Wesley Matthews-0.7-1.1-1.91789-0.11.2 James Michael McAdoo-2.0+0.4-1.6394-0.10.8 Wilson Chandler-1.0-0.6-1.616300.01.3 Thabo Sefolosha-1.8+1.8-0.19970.91.9 Ramon Sessions-1.7-1.4-3.1546-0.40.1 Kevin Martin-1.4-1.4-2.9343-0.20.1 P.J. Hairston-1.4-1.0-2.4442-0.11.1 Salah Mejri-2.9+3.5+0.68790.51.0 Courtney Lee-0.4-1.2-1.717230.21.6 Doral Moore-3.1+1.0-2.1107-0.10.4 Derrick Williams-1.7-0.9-2.6483-0.40.3 Kevin Huerter-1.5-1.4-3.0793-0.57.6 Josh Huestis-2.8+0.7-2.1790-0.30.6 James Anderson-1.6-0.8-2.3314-0.10.5 Terrence Jones-1.6-0.1-1.7870-0.30.9 Sterling Brown-1.9-0.2-2.11001-0.13.3 Justin Hamilton-1.9+0.6-1.2703-0.30.5 Trey Lyles-0.1-0.2-0.316100.77.3 Donatas Motiejunas-1.9+0.6-1.4480-0.10.7 Justin Jackson-1.4-0.9-2.31525-0.63.5 Josh Smith-2.8-0.6-3.4296-0.30.0 Luke Babbitt-0.8-0.8-1.68280.00.9 Pat Connaughton-0.4-1.3-1.710990.12.5 Giannis Antetokounmpo+3.1+2.4+5.525589.857.3 Willy Hernangomez-0.8+1.3+0.511210.54.9 D.J. Wilson-1.3-0.5-1.7398-0.11.3 Jeff Withey-2.4+1.4-1.0393-0.10.3 Kent Bazemore-0.8+0.5-0.217401.65.2 Garrett Temple-1.5-0.3-1.812530.00.9 Darrell Arthur-1.7+0.3-1.4487-0.10.4 Nick Young-0.3-2.2-2.5902-0.30.3 Michael Beasley-1.1-0.5-1.61235-0.20.9 Dragan Bender-1.9+0.0-1.82020-0.810.2 Cory Joseph-0.3-0.9-1.218180.53.8 Jamal Crawford-0.9-4.0-4.9864-1.40.0 Evan Fournier+1.0-1.5-0.520041.47.1 Buddy Hield+0.9-1.4-0.519261.49.8 Emmanuel Mudiay-0.7-2.1-2.81429-0.93.1 Marcin Gortat-2.2+1.6-0.71639-0.20.8 Vince Carter-1.3-0.6-1.98550.00.4 Arnoldas Kulboka-2.0-0.5-2.5600.01.5 Eric Gordon+1.5-1.4+0.120102.26.3 Ron Baker-1.6-0.3-1.87240.02.2 Monta Ellis-1.8-0.8-2.6897-0.40.3 Jeff Green-1.2-0.7-1.91296-0.40.5 Dwyane Wade-1.4-0.6-1.911620.00.4 Austin Rivers+0.8-1.8-1.019730.95.4 Gerald Henderson-1.6-1.6-3.3650-0.50.2 Marcelo Huertas-2.0-1.7-3.7285-0.30.0 Nick Collison-2.0+0.1-2.0358-0.20.1 Lance Thomas-2.5-0.8-3.3879-0.90.1 Damyean Dotson-1.0-0.9-2.07420.02.0 Mike Miller-1.8-0.2-2.0395-0.10.2 Mike Conley+2.1-1.0+1.115232.46.1 Otto Porter Jr.+2.6+1.2+3.824157.037.7 Khyri Thomas-0.9-1.3-2.2353-0.12.6 Royce O’Neale-1.1+1.0-0.113111.06.3 K.J. McDaniels-1.5-0.5-2.0423-0.11.3 Plus-Minus (Points per 100 possessions) Trae Young+0.2-1.8-1.618070.116.6 Jakob Poeltl-0.8+2.1+1.315791.713.6 Spencer Hawes-2.0+0.8-1.2569-0.20.3 Carl Landry-1.9-0.1-2.0300-0.20.2 Ryan Arcidiacono-1.1-0.9-2.0626-0.11.9 Tim Duncan-1.7+1.5-0.24660.20.5 Aaron Harrison-1.3-0.7-2.06240.02.3 Alan Anderson-2.0-1.0-3.0280-0.20.0 Jeremy Lin-0.3-1.0-1.38700.21.0 Antonio Blakeney-1.2-1.6-2.8677-0.31.4 Evan Turner-2.2-0.2-2.31503-0.50.6 Dante Cunningham-1.9-0.2-2.11134-0.50.4 Andrea Bargnani-2.1+0.0-2.1328-0.20.0 Blake Griffin+2.0+0.5+2.420554.013.5 Taurean Prince-0.5-0.1-0.720091.18.7 Johnny O’Bryant III-2.1-0.2-2.4542-0.40.7 Alec Burks-1.1-1.0-2.1944-0.11.3 Ronnie Price-1.7-1.0-2.7314-0.20.0 Isaiah Canaan-0.5-1.6-2.1846-0.21.1 Lavoy Allen-2.2+0.1-2.1531-0.30.3 Nikola Vucevic-0.7+2.3+1.619672.28.3 Alex Caruso-1.6-0.2-1.78360.02.5 Tyler Ennis-0.8-0.6-1.49400.13.7 Jamal Murray+2.4-2.0+0.423732.926.2 Caris LeVert-0.1-0.6-0.618010.97.9 Gordon Hayward+2.1-0.4+1.711122.27.3 Jahlil Okafor-2.5+0.2-2.4898-1.00.7 Victor Oladipo+2.2+1.5+3.724897.738.0 Al Jefferson-2.7+0.6-2.1532-0.50.1 OG Anunoby+0.4+0.5+0.920572.927.5 Zach Randolph-1.5-1.4-2.91050-1.10.1 Jared Dudley-1.3+0.3-1.08140.20.8 Kyle O’Quinn-0.9+2.3+1.414041.76.6 Justin Holiday-0.7+0.0-0.618321.24.6 Collin Sexton-0.6-2.5-3.11254-1.08.3 Miles Bridges-1.3-0.9-2.21010-0.57.7 Abdel Nader-3.2-0.6-3.9525-0.70.4 Danuel House-0.9-1.3-2.2576-0.11.4 Brandon Jennings-0.4-1.6-2.0771-0.10.6 Kristaps Porzingis+0.0+2.3+2.320523.725.6 Malcolm Brogdon+0.7-1.1-0.417961.48.1 Julius Randle+0.4-0.1+0.320401.29.0 Chase Budinger-1.6-0.3-2.0289-0.10.4 Gary Harris+2.0-1.0+0.923883.722.1 PositionOffenseDefenseCombined C.J. Watson-2.2-1.2-3.4317-0.30.1 Just in time for the NBA’s free agent bonanza (headlined by LeBron James’s The Decision: Part III), FiveThirtyEight has re-launched CARMELO, our NBA player projection system, with forecasts for 2018-19 and beyond. Jordan Mickey-2.1+0.2-1.9537-0.21.2 Avery Bradley-1.0-1.3-2.21558-0.31.2 Anderson Varejao-2.9+1.2-1.7347-0.30.0 Ryan Anderson+0.4-1.2-0.816000.21.6 Maxi Kleber-1.9+0.5-1.51225-0.31.6 Jason Smith-3.0+0.4-2.6451-0.40.1 Jodie Meeks-0.9-2.0-2.9682-0.40.3 Rodney Purvis-1.9-1.7-3.6504-0.50.6 Devin Booker+2.0-2.4-0.422721.818.2 Arron Afflalo-2.4-2.2-4.6568-0.90.0 Rodney Hood+0.1-1.8-1.715990.23.2 Charlie Villanueva-2.6+0.0-2.6271-0.20.1 Dion Waiters-0.5-1.0-1.514130.32.3 Luol Deng-2.1+0.5-1.66300.00.4 Andrew Nicholson-2.3+0.0-2.3363-0.20.3 Jonathan Isaac-2.4+2.1-0.312960.713.1 Harrison Barnes-0.2-1.0-1.222590.13.0 Allonzo Trier-2.2-2.3-4.5118-0.20.2 Luke Kennard+0.2-0.7-0.517161.414.2 Kevin Hervey-1.6-0.7-2.3273-0.11.8 Kyle Kuzma+0.3-1.0-0.723190.58.4 Delon Wright+0.7+0.5+1.315412.513.0 Theo Pinson-1.5-0.7-2.31440.00.8 Marco Belinelli-0.1-2.2-2.41292-0.30.6 Danilo Gallinari+0.4-0.2+0.315661.54.0 Shaun Livingston-2.0-0.3-2.4855-0.30.4 Kelly Oubre Jr.-0.3-0.5-0.820260.99.6 Mario Hezonja-1.0-0.5-1.515510.15.5 Marreese Speights-0.7+0.0-0.68450.10.8 Josh Okogie-1.3-1.1-2.4823-0.29.6 Sindarius Thornwell-2.0+0.6-1.412860.45.4 Josh Richardson-0.2+0.6+0.422772.715.0 JaMychal Green-1.4-0.3-1.71536-0.51.2 David West-1.7+2.7+0.98000.81.2 Andrew Bogut-3.8+2.8-1.0443-0.20.2 Mo Williams-1.1-1.7-2.9334-0.20.1 Wayne Ellington+0.7-1.8-1.114710.62.3 Jae Crowder-0.1-0.4-0.419111.14.5 Trey Burke+1.2-2.8-1.611210.12.3 Archie Goodwin-0.3-1.4-1.75780.12.2 Domantas Sabonis-1.0+0.7-0.319960.68.9 Jonas Valanciunas-0.4+1.0+0.718351.16.0 Damian Jones-1.8-0.1-1.9590.00.1 Brandon Bass-2.0-0.5-2.4361-0.30.1 Patrick Patterson-0.6+0.5-0.113160.72.5 Kevin Garnett-2.3-0.1-2.4436-0.30.0 Bruce Brown Jr.-1.1-0.6-1.73320.03.2 Eric Moreland-2.6+2.7+0.18740.63.5 Troy Daniels+0.1-3.4-3.21136-0.80.7 Leandro Barbosa-1.4-1.7-3.1348-0.20.1 Rudy Gay-1.0+0.7-0.312020.72.0 Milos Teodosic-0.2-1.2-1.310810.31.5 Raul Neto-0.5-0.7-1.28440.22.4 Klay Thompson+1.6-1.1+0.623763.211.6 Jacob Evans-1.3-0.6-1.95640.06.2 Norris Cole-1.1-1.4-2.5314-0.10.2 De’Aaron Fox-0.6-2.0-2.52198-1.08.3 Ivan Rabb-1.1-0.2-1.3990-0.13.8 Lonzo Ball+0.4+2.1+2.524815.845.3 CARMELO NBA Player Projections: Our probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like, based on similar players throughout history. See our projections for 2018-19 and beyond » Luis Scola-1.8-0.8-2.6376-0.30.0 Jeremy Lamb+1.1-0.7+0.418192.310.2 Meyers Leonard-1.0+0.3-0.7854-0.11.2 Shake Milton-1.6-1.4-3.1279-0.21.4 Jonas Jerebko-1.2+0.0-1.29230.10.8 Terrance Ferguson-1.2-1.5-2.81081-0.52.7 Alexis Ajinca-3.2+1.5-1.7456-0.30.2 Keenan Evans-1.6-1.6-3.2188-0.20.9 Patty Mills+1.4-1.9-0.517551.23.5 Josh Jackson-1.2-0.8-2.01884-0.37.9 Adreian Payne-2.1+0.5-1.6476-0.10.8 Ed Davis-1.7+1.5-0.212310.41.9 Sasha Vujacic-2.1-0.6-2.7301-0.10.2 Trevon Duval-2.4-1.8-4.2200-0.31.4 O.J. Mayo-1.4-0.6-1.93850.00.4 Markel Brown-1.4-1.3-2.7306-0.10.5 Hamidou Diallo-2.2-1.9-4.1331-0.41.8 Tomas Satoransky+0.4+0.0+0.416201.99.5 Draymond Green+0.9+3.4+4.323327.028.6 Mirza Teletovic-1.2-1.1-2.4466-0.30.1 The basics of the system are largely similar to previous years, with the backbone of CARMELO remaining an algorithm that compares current players to past ones who had statistically similar profile through the same age. For instance, Utah Jazz phenom Donovan Mitchell is similar to players such as Gilbert Arenas, Ray Allen, Stephen Curry, Ben Gordon, Victor Oladipo and O.J. Mayo through this early point in their respective careers. Some of those players (Allen, Curry) became superstars, while others (Gordon, Mayo) didn’t really pan out. The combination of those good and not-so-good outcomes gives us a probabilistic forecast for the rest of Mitchell’s career.In a moment, I’ll describe the (relatively minor) changes to CARMELO this year, but first, a quick word about how the system did last season.How CARMELO Performed in 2017-18In the regular season, CARMELO performed very well, as its preseason projections were the second-most accurate of the 20 projection systems tracked by the statheads at the ABPRmetrics message board. It also correctly predicted the Warriors defeating the Cavaliers as the most likely NBA Finals matchup (not that this was a bold take, exactly).CARMELO was also among the most accurate regular-season prediction systems in its debut year in 2015-16, although it was one of the least accurate in 2016-17. What accounted for these differences? In 2015-16 and 2017-18, CARMELO used a combination of Real Plus-Minus and Box Plus/Minus to make its forecasts, whereas in 2016-17 it solely used BPM. (CARMELO uses a mix of two-thirds RPM and one-third BPM rather than weighting them equally.) While we’ll want another two or three season to know for sure, we strongly suspect that the RPM/BPM blend outperforms BPM alone.In addition to our preseason projections, we update our projections for teams — though not for individual players — during the season using a version of the Elo rating system. (These are our so-called “CARM-Elo” projections.) In contrast to our preseason projections, these in-season projections sometimes seemed pretty hinky last season, at least when it came to forecasting the NBA playoffs. Despite an adjustment that was meant to give extra credit to teams with more playoff experience, the system seemed to overcorrect based on how teams finished out their regular seasons — getting too bullish on the 76ers and Raptors, for example, and too bearish on the Warriors and Cavs.One potential shortcoming is that whereas our preseason projections use depth charts and projected playing time for each team, the in-season updates do not. For instance, they had no way to account for Curry’s injury late in the regular season and subsequent return in the second round of the playoffs. One solution could be to continuously update depth charts (and CARMELO player projections) throughout the season instead of just at the start of the year. We’re examining alternatives; just know, for now, that we think the preseason CARMELO projections are pretty smart, but that our Elo-based method for updating them during the season might require some rethinking.What’s Different In CARMELO for 2018-19The major fix to CARMELO this season isn’t a change in how the system projects players, but rather in how it values them. Like many modern statistical systems, CARMELO uses a notion of the replacement-level player in calculating player value. A replacement-level player, in theory, is someone who is freely or cheaply available, e.g. a G League player or someone signed to a contract for the league minimum salary.How good, or bad, are these sorts of players? They’re below-average — but it turns out they’re not that far below average. Over the past four seasons, players signed to minimum-salary contracts or two-way contracts subtract about 1.5 points per 100 possessions from a team’s scoring margin1According to our RPM/BPM blend from above. Also, note that this calculation is weighted by their playing time. Part of the benefit of picking guys up off the waiver wire is that you can churn through them quickly, cutting bait with unproductive players at little expense but occasionally finding a hidden gem, which helps raise the weighted average for these types of players., relative to an average player — somewhat better than the -2.0 points per 100 possessions that CARMELO had assumed before. Moreover, we found that the quality of replacement-level players differs quite a bit by position. As the NBA shifts to smaller lineups, it’s relatively easy to find reasonably productive bigs on the waiver wire (see my colleague Chris Herring’s story on the sad saga of Roy Hibbert). But it’s harder to find good wings or point guards. Thus, our calculation of wins above replacement is now position-based, using the values you see in the table below.2For players who split their time across multiple positions, we use a blend of his positions to calculate replacement level. Luka Doncic-1.0-1.2-2.21271-0.321.2 Dillon Brooks-0.7-0.6-1.222750.69.2 Dennis Schroder+1.4-2.4-0.920910.96.7 Kay Felder-1.0-1.8-2.8528-0.32.1 Jonathon Simmons-1.3-1.2-2.51452-0.60.9 Dwight Powell-0.6+1.5+0.916111.57.4 Allen Crabbe+0.4-1.6-1.219800.74.6 Tobias Harris+1.2-0.5+0.724692.711.6 Ivica Zubac-1.9+1.4-0.5960-0.14.0 Tiago Splitter-2.4+0.2-2.3255-0.20.1 Yante Maten-2.6-0.4-2.9173-0.20.6 Davon Reed-1.6-0.8-2.4597-0.22.5 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson-0.8+0.8+0.019311.611.2 Stanley Johnson-1.3+0.7-0.619261.011.6 Nik Stauskas-0.7-1.4-2.11059-0.12.2 Jordan Hill-2.0+0.3-1.8283-0.10.2 Emeka Okafor-2.7+1.8-0.9313-0.10.2 Okaro White-1.6-0.1-1.7511-0.20.8 Cheick Diallo-1.5+0.0-1.5864-0.22.1 Wes Iwundu-2.7-0.1-2.81091-0.72.0 PF-1.4+0.3-1.1 Nikola Mirotic+0.7+0.8+1.518382.610.9 Reggie Bullock+0.1-0.6-0.514951.15.0 Wendell Carter Jr.-1.4+0.7-0.61215-0.215.1 Bobby Portis+0.2-0.8-0.515760.56.2 Quinn Cook+0.1-2.3-2.3882-0.21.5 DeMar DeRozan+2.4-1.5+0.923313.511.6 Alex Abrines-0.1-1.4-1.511370.33.5 CJ Miles+0.2-1.4-1.211570.31.4 Isaiah Hicks-2.1-0.3-2.4532-0.40.9 Frank Mason-0.1-1.9-2.01160-0.22.5 Kenneth Faried-1.0-0.3-1.3874-0.10.8 Ryan Kelly-2.0+0.2-1.72900.00.8 Derrick Rose-0.8-2.2-3.0883-0.60.2 Andrew Wiggins+0.8-1.6-0.826251.413.2 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist-1.3+0.7-0.517961.17.5 D’Angelo Russell+1.5-1.7-0.218341.615.5 Jamel Artis-1.9-1.0-2.9518-0.30.9 Aaron Holiday-0.9-2.2-3.1547-0.42.2 Alec Peters-0.9-0.4-1.26540.02.3 Lance Stephenson-1.0-1.7-2.71163-0.60.7 Treveon Graham-1.0-0.9-1.99450.02.3 Jalen Brunson-0.9-2.4-3.2415-0.41.6 James Harden+6.6+0.1+6.7249611.853.8 Bryn Forbes-0.4-2.3-2.71084-0.51.5 Deron Williams+0.0-1.3-1.39080.20.8 Ben Simmons+2.5+2.3+4.825248.865.5 Player▲▼Off. +/-▲▼Def. +/-▲▼Tot. +/-▲▼Min.▲▼WAR▲▼7-Year Upside▲▼ Keita Bates-Diop-1.7-0.5-2.2255-0.21.1 Semi Ojeleye-3.1-0.9-4.01008-1.60.5 Dzanan Musa-1.7-0.6-2.4224-0.15.9 Cristiano Felicio-2.3-0.4-2.7965-1.10.4 Kyrie Irving+4.2-1.7+2.622515.326.2 TJ Leaf-1.1-1.2-2.3780-0.51.8 Brandon Paul-2.1+0.0-2.1627-0.11.1 JJ Redick+1.4-2.3-0.917571.02.5 Kosta Koufos-2.3+1.5-0.81239-0.11.2 Lonnie Walker IV-1.6-1.8-3.4749-0.65.9 Alonzo Gee-2.2-0.1-2.3330-0.10.2 Tim Frazier-1.0-0.7-1.710160.11.7 Donovan Mitchell+2.2-0.1+2.126745.945.6 Damjan Rudez-1.6-0.5-2.1335-0.10.1 JaKarr Sampson-2.4+0.7-1.7619-0.11.2 Patrick Beverley+0.3+0.1+0.414541.74.3 Tyus Jones+1.7+0.2+1.818373.629.1 Tyler Ulis-0.7-2.1-2.81487-0.83.0 Raymond Felton-1.2-1.2-2.31001-0.30.4 George King-1.7-1.8-3.5125-0.10.2 Mikal Bridges-0.9+0.1-0.811030.513.2 Luc Mbah a Moute-1.9+1.4-0.613710.61.8 Al-Farouq Aminu-0.7+1.9+1.120072.710.0 Cameron Payne-0.4-0.9-1.310770.24.0 Daniel Theis-1.3+1.9+0.612820.74.4 Pablo Prigioni-2.4-1.3-3.7364-0.40.0 Brian Roberts-1.7-1.8-3.5299-0.30.1 Chandler Hutchison-0.9-1.0-1.9539-0.13.8 Semaj Christon-2.0-1.6-3.7516-0.60.6 Rodions Kurucs-1.9-0.5-2.41170.02.5 Kyle Korver-0.2-1.0-1.210530.41.2 Deyonta Davis-1.7+0.3-1.41100-0.42.7 Andre Drummond-0.5+2.9+2.524633.919.8 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander-1.1-0.8-1.91109-0.114.0 Caleb Swanigan-0.7-1.6-2.2218-0.10.8 Malachi Richardson-1.1-1.0-2.2685-0.12.3 Manu Ginobili-1.7-0.4-2.1776-0.10.3 Kyle Singler-2.4-0.5-2.9300-0.20.1 James Ennis III-1.0-0.4-1.413720.22.2 Jarrett Allen-1.6+1.6+0.016890.412.0 Mindaugas Kuzminskas-2.8-1.3-4.1268-0.40.1 DeAndre Jordan-0.3+2.2+1.920942.79.1 Malik Newman-1.8-2.3-4.1147-0.20.4 PG-0.7-1.0-1.7 Kevin Durant+3.6+0.7+4.322016.827.3 Kyle Lowry+4.3-0.2+4.123197.528.2 Omari Spellman-1.6+0.2-1.4452-0.13.8 Dwight Buycks-1.4-1.0-2.4449-0.20.6 * Upside is a measure of WAR where values lower than zero are treated as zero instead. That is, it doesn’t punish a player for being below replacement level, but does reward him for being above replacement level. The 7-year calculation reflects the 2018-19 through 2024-25 seasons.